December 21, 2008 - "Market Advice from Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, Lizz Ann Sonders"
Summary: Read why she thinks current market conditions indicate a potential market bottom and why this might be a good time from a very long-term perspective to average into the market.
As the market continues to hold its gains since the Nov. 20 lows, more observers are starting to think that was an important bottom, including many who were previously cautious on stocks.
Liz
Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.,
is not a market timer and does not claim to know if Nov. 20 was "the"
bottom. ("Nobody knows," she adds.)
But many of the signs of a bottom have been evident in recent weeks, she says, noting:
Cash
levels in 401(k) accounts reached an all-time high in October, a sign
investor sentiment hit extremely bearish levels, a contrarian indicator.
As
of November 2008, the 10-year return for the S&P 500 matched its
worst performance in history. Because of mean reversion, bad (or, in
this case, awful) 10-year returns typically lead to positive 10-year
returns going forward.
Treasury Yields to zero — and negative for short periods — is a sign of panic among
investors who would rather lock in a quantifiable loss vs. risk putting
money to work in "riskier" assets.
"Treasuries has truly
been the only asset class that's saved you," Sonders says. "That may
continue for a while but I'm safe in saying I guarantee it's not going
to last forever. At some point investors are going to want to take some
risk in order to get some semblance of a return."